This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight PPV card at Phoenix, Arizona. This is the first ever UFC on big ESPN card and DK has some adequate competitions for us with this Sunday card. The most important GPP is that a $10 buy-in and $20k belongs to 1st place, also there’ll be $100k in total prizes. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for this last contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 50 or so entries at that $20k decoration. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of play into money games. With that said, let us get into a few plays I like too as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Vicente Luque is your most powerful play on the background, in my view. I think he’ll be the better fighter everywhere this battle moves, and he must dominate. I like locking that win in my money game and I think he has a fantastic shot at getting 10x his $9.4additional salary. I do expect him to become popular in tournaments so in the event that you want to fade the ownership there and try to be contrarian, I would definitely want some Luque investment in cash games. Barberena is tough so he could last all 3 rounds and when he does then Luque could score from the 80s and that will not win any GPPs. However, we can use an ~80-point win in money games since we only have to beat half the area unlike those tournaments.
GPP play of the week — Cain Velasquez ($9,000)
Cain Velasquez is my GPP drama of the week because of the chances. A bit over a week ago he was a -255 favored and that is what resulted in his high $95 price tag. Now he’s just -155 and all the value is currently on Ngannou in his 7.2k price tag. I anticipate Ngannou to be the highest owned fighter on the card and when Cain wins then he will kill off near half the area. Also, if Cain wins he’s likely scoring over 100-points. I anticipate his possession to really go down the more his betting line decreases and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. He’s a 0-point floor, so that I do not care for him in cash game, however for GPPs we want boom or bust to attempt to reach that 1st place prize.
Underdog play of this week — Andre Fili ($7,400)
Andre Fili is my favorite dog of this week. He’s $1,400 less costly than Myles Jury on DraftKings, but he’s just a +125 underdog. I believe he has a good shot of winning this battle and I am choosing him to get his hands raised. I expect this to be an extremely close battle, but I believe Fili will probably be the fighter striking in the greater rate and that is what I think do it for him to the judges’ scorecards. I really don’t see Fili having 100+ stage upside down but we do not really require that in his $7.4k price tag. I think he’s a great shot at getting at 10x, so he’s playable in most formats for me.
Fade of the week — Andrea Lee ($8,900)
Andrea Lee is my fade of the week. Not because I believe she will lose, but I think have difficulty seeing her about the 20k lineup at her salary. I enjoy the 9k range much more than her and all of them have higher ceilings using their grappling-based match programs. Andrea Lee scored well in her UFC introduction, but that is because she didn’t utilize grappling there. I don’t see her doing this in this match because I presume Evans-Smith gets the edge on the floor and she must be the one searching for takedowns. If Lee is going to win this battle, then she is going to have to get it done on the feet and I don’t see her having a high ceiling without a finish. The only reason to use her is because she will be super low possessed, and it will make your lineup , but I wouldn’t advise it.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 57-34 to get +188.13u (+$18,813) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

Read more: