BIG MARLEY’S UFC FIGHT NIGHT 135 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend we have a 13-fight card then extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and I am ready to win some money on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC debut so it is always nice when you are already familiar with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions are not the best, but there is still a great deal of money to be obtained. I’ll be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP in addition to the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at these huge prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I’ll be starting my money lineup. I can put in Vick and Gaethje then figure out the rest from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC battles have been Fight Of The Year kind fights. Those kinds of fights are fantastic for DraftKings. Notably cash games because we can lock at a win and get all the points in the very best fight on the card. Usually 4 wins will get the business done in cash games and we will get over 100 points on this battle. But with that win locked in, we just need to find 3 others we feel great about.
GPP play of the week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is challenging to want to pay $9.5k for a man like Barberena if you can just pay an additional $200 to find a -1000 preferred in Anders. But, I believe that’s what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I believe we’ll get him in a somewhat lower ownership due to his large salary, and he has an excellent shot at getting a 1st round win. If he can get a 1st round KO afterward he’ll have 100 points so he’ll pay off that large salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, then I think you should find some Barberena on your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his older self. I believe Barberena does pick up a finish inside this fight so that I will throw him in some GPPs and hope he’s under possessed.
Underdog drama of this week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the easy worth play of the week. Presently, Fili is the betting favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. But, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I really like taking that worth when it’s available so that I think he’s in play in most formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments together with the value we are getting on him, but I am ready to consume that chalk and I don’t want to get burned by entirely fading that value. I do think this is the toughest fight on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps with his wrestling I think he will have a fantastic shot at winning this fight. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I would prefer MJ but not by a lot. At $7.5k we do not require a huge score from Fili so any win will probably do just fine. I am not going to pass on this value and I think he’s the simple underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of the week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This could just be my personal prejudice but I am not going to possess Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my money lineup. Dober has only proceeded for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to attack. I think this will be a remarkable battle also and I think that it’s going to be closer than the odds signal. At $8.9k I believe we will need a finish from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and that I don’t see that happening. If you do believe Dober can find a KO, then you ought to be enjoying him. I will only be paying up elsewhere because I am not sure he can find that complete and I would not be amazed if he lost the struggle. I will say I never seem to utilize Dober in DraftKings, so I could get burnt again but I will stick with my Dober fade and he’ll be my fade of this week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my private approaches & recommendations, and my pick outlook for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
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