The Juice on Futures Bets, or Why Most Sharps Avoid Futures
If you read our article on how sportsbooks generate odds, you will be aware that a bookmaker’s sole aim is to entice equal activity on all sides of a bet, then pocket a gain on the juice (also known as’the vig’).
Futures odds can change immediately. They generally vary at least once a week as a result of factors like teams going on hot streaks and sportsbooks balancing lines in reaction to incoming stakes. Bookmakers seize these opportunities (afforded to them from the notorious volatility of stocks chances ) to bill enormous juice in their futures lines. It’s generally accepted that futures chances have enormous variation baked into them, and sportsbooks use this to their benefit.
Additionally, sportsbooks charge colossal juice futures to handle their risk. For example, in the NHL, 31 teams compete for the Stanley Cup every year. At the middle of July, it is extremely hard for a bookmaker to successfully balance the activity they are getting on stocks stakes. There is just too much doubt early in the season. As such, sportsbooks respond by charging juice.
As we mentioned earlier, a Cinderella run by an underdog at any moment in the season can be sufficient to give any oddsmaker a panic attack. If the Vegas Golden Knights had won the Stanley Cup, it might have been an unmitigated disaster for sportsbooks. These sportsbooks were hugely vulnerable because they’d have had to cover the bettors who wagered on the Knights at the beginning of the season in a minimum of 100-1 odds, depending on the sportsbook.
Just how Much Juice Can a Sportsbook Charge?
If you are confused about the way sportsbooks charge juice on futures bets, it’s simple: All you have to do is add up the odds being provided on each player or team and convert them to implied probability. You will see that the amount is over the standard 105%-110% on traditional betting lines.
By way of instance, we took a look at Bovada’s Stanley Cup Odds in the summer until the 2018 NHL season started, and discovered that the total implied likelihood was 130.14 percent. Two teams were listed at +750, meaning that they had an implied probability of 11.76percent to win the Stanley Cup. Obviously, estimating a team’s likelihood of winning before the puck even drops on this season is wildly unrealistic.
Both teams were certain favorites, but in +750, sportsbooks make bettors pay a hefty premium if they want to lay down cash on the first season contenders. It is very likely the Bovada was getting a lot of activity on these two teams, so they shortened the chances significantly to try to balance the action.
It’s commonly accepted that mortar and brick sportsbooks charge about 40-70percent on futures bets, while online sportsbooks charge around 20-40%. There is no hard and fast rule, and the amount of juice sportsbooks charge will fluctuate because the season transpires.
We discovered that with some astute and extensive online shopping, it is possible to get around 7% juice complete. Remember, however, that to get this 7 percent juice, you’d have to bet on every available option. Not only is this time consuming, but it is not likely to be rewarding.
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