After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile flat trail in Phoenix for the fourth race of the season.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are riding streaks of eight top-12 endings dating back to last year, but both motorists are going to take a backseat to the recent dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch in Phoenix.

Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest chances to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and won at the track last season. This weekend, if Harvick were to win, he would join an elite group, becoming just the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or even more Cup Series races at a single track; linking Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.

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In three of the previous four Phoenix races, Busch has led 359 laps, including 117 in his win during last year’s playoffs — the first under the new configuration of the track.

Phoenix’s track is similar to Richmond and New Hampshire and it’s no surprise both Harvick and Busch have had similar success at these racks. Busch has won 2017’s fall race in New Hampshire and the last two races in Richmond. Harvick won the most-recent race in New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the past six races in Richmond.

But unlike in those previous races, all motorists will be using a new automobile installment executed by NASCAR, one different from what we saw the previous two weeks at Atlanta and Las Vegas. This year, teams may use a spacer — and no aero ducts — for the very first time. They will use a 750-horsepower engine at Phoenix instead of their engine at Vegas. NASCAR hopes to see a well-handling car. The package that is new could close the gap Harvick and Busch have had on the field.

So far in two races with the marginally differing rules package of NASCAR, Ford has five period wins and has led 65 percent of the laps. Ford motorist Aric Almirola, Harvick’s teammate, will be a sleeper driver. He was third in New Hampshire’s similar design last season, fifth at Richmond and fourth in last year’s fall race at Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and we enjoy him .

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Odds to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 in Phoenix

Odds Supplied by Westgate LV SuperBook

Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 500/1
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